By Brian Nzomo.
On October 30th 1983, the issue of the ‘Parade’ magazine in the US highlighted a grim report of a possible destruction that may have rocked the world if the nuclear race that had escalated at the height of the cold war would erupt into a full scale nuclear exchange. The report was done by a number of scientists; key among them was famous cosmologist Carl Sagan.
The report highlighted possible effects that may arise including dust and smoke that could waft above the stratosphere leading to a period of ‘nuclear winter’ that could lead to a massive drop in temperature leading to a terrible famine. The magazine issue indicated that if a nuclear war took place, almost a billion people could die but the long term effects would be even more disastrous.
“We have placed our civilization and our species in jeopardy,” the article said. It said that it wouldn’t take all nuclear weapons for the world to be destroyed, and that even a small scale war could destroy humanity as we know it.
Behind the report was one most visible science figure at the time. Carl Sagan. Sagan was already a household name by then. He was one of the well known scientists at the time whose immense contribution was felt in the field of space science. He even co-wrote popular PBS series ‘Cosmos’. By embarking on this report, Sagan put his credibility to the test and clashed with pro-nuclear conservatives in the president Ronald Reagan administration. Some scientists even accused him of using his popularity in the science world to engage in advocacy. Sagan even termed this period as the greatest controversial scientific debate he had ever been embrawled in.
In 1980, two scientists; Alvarez and Walker came up with a theory about an asteroid that once hit earth at the end of the Cretaceous period. The impact led dust and debris particles to be dislodged in the air long enough to cause the extinction of the last of the non-bird dinosaurs. The hypothesis meant that a disaster in one place could lead to the destruction of an entire planet.
Sagan, James Pollack , Brian Toon, Tom Ackerman and Rich Turco realised this work applied to climate change on Earth—as well as nuclear war. They used computer models and data collected by satellites and space probes to conclude that it wouldn’t take a full-scale thermonuclear war to cause Earth’s temperature to drop in a disastrous manner. They found average global temperatures could drop between 15º and 25º Celsius, and the planet would drown into a “nuclear winter”—a deadly period of darkness, famine, toxic gases and cold conditions.
“We have placed our civilization and our species in jeopardy…”
Parade magazine: October 30th 1983
The model however does not include the short-term effects of such a war on small geographical scales and the inability to predict changes in weather- but only climate.
“When combined with the prompt destruction from nuclear blast, fires, and fallout and the later enhancement of solar ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion, long-term exposure to cold, dark, and radioactivity could pose a serious threat to human survivors and to other species … The possibility of the extinction of Homo sapiens cannot be excluded,” the article said…
The article was published in the journal ‘Science’ in December 1983 and sparked conversation in the scientific world. The report labelled TTAPS- acronym for the last names of the five scientists.
Sagan appeared on the media to warn the world against the ‘nuclear winter’. This meant foregoing personal interests. He once told his colleagues,“I have to tell you I’m not likely to do much of anything on Galileo( a space program) for the next year or so, because I am concentrating most of my energies on saving the world from nuclear holocaust.”
Grinspoon writes that Sagan was not the major researcher of the report and that his main facilitating part was to ensure the article survived the controversy to come. NASA was reluctant in engaging in the controversy for fears about underfunding.
Sagan’s advocacy led to his invitation to Congress in 1984, his meeting with Pope John Paul (II). He was also mentioned by Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev after the proliferation of the Cold war, as a major player considered in the decision made. But Sagan was not the first scientist to engage in advocacy. There was Marie Curie. And Albert Einstein who used his scientific platform of fame to advocate against racism.
He even once helped write the nuclear arms-control section of President Jimmy Carter’s farewell address, using phrases from Cosmos and his other writings. “Nuclear weapons are an expression of one side of our human character,” Sagan wrote. “But there’s another side. The same rocket technology that delivers nuclear warheads has also taken us peacefully into space. From that perspective, we see our Earth as it really is—a small and fragile and beautiful blue globe, the only home we have. We see no barriers of race or religion or country. We see the essential unity of our species and our planet. And with faith and common sense, that bright vision will ultimately prevail.”
This advocacy report on the ‘nuclear winter ‘ pitted Sagan against adversaries such as physicist Edward Teller who was fully anti-communist and Anti-Russian. The two faced each other in Congress. Each raising opposing points on the issue. Another key opposer of the ‘nuclear winter’ report was Robert Jastrow. And the controversy waged on…
Grinspoon says, ” What nuclear winter shows is that they’re not really weapons in the sense that other things are weapons: that you can use them to harm your adversary without harming yourself. People are not really considering that if there really were to be a nuclear conflagration…” He says pro-nuclear supporters are living in denial over the imminent dangers posed by nuclear exchanges.
The conversation isn’t dying soon. For the same debate that skirted around the ‘nuclear winter’ question, still crop up in the climate change conversations.
Brian Nzomo is a Communications and media student at the Kenyatta university. He is also a writer and poet. You can contact him via email: bryonzoms505@gmail.com or at Bryan Nzomo in Facebook.
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